Perspective Reasoning and the Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem

This paper proposes a new explanation for the paradoxes related to anthropic reasoning. Solutions to the Sleeping Beauty Problem and the Doomsday argument are discussed in detail. The main argument can be summarized as follows: Our thoughts, reasonings and narratives inherently comes from a certain perspective. With each perspective there is a center, or using the term broadly, a self. The natural first-person perspective is most primitive. However we can also think and express from others’ perspectives with a theory of mind. A perspective’s center could be unrelated to the topic of discussion so its de se thoughts need not to be considered, e.g. the perspective of an outside observer. Let’s call these the third-person perspective. First-person reasoning allows primitive self identification as I am inherently unique as the center of the perspective. Whereas from third-person perspective I am not fundamentally special comparing to others so a reference class of observers including me can be defined. It is my contention that reasonings from different perspectives should not mix. Otherwise it could lead to paradoxes even independent of anthropic reasoning. The paradoxes surrounding anthropic reasoning are caused by the aforementioned perspective mix. Regarding the sleeping beauty problem the correct answer should be double halving. Lewisian halving and thirding uses unique reasonings from both first and third-person perspectives. Indexical probabilities such as “the probability that this is the first awakening” or “the probability of me being one of the first 100 billion human beings” also mixes first- and third-person reasonings. Therefore invalid. Readers against perspectivism may disagree with point 1 and suggest we could reason in objective terms without the limit of perspectives. My argument is compatible with this belief. Objective reasoning would be analytically identical to the third-person perspective. My argument would become that objective reasoning and perspective reasonings should not mix. In the following I would continue to use “third-person perspective” but readers can switch that to “objective reasoning” if they wish so

Cosine-Based Embedding for Completing Lightweight Schematic Knowledge in DL-Lite<i>_core</i>

Schematic knowledge, an important component of knowledge graphs (KGs), defines a rich set of logical axioms based on concepts and relations to support knowledge integration, reasoning, and heterogeneity elimination over KGs. Although several KGs consist of lots of factual knowledge, their schematic knowledge (e.g., subclassOf axioms, disjointWith axioms) is far from complete. Currently, existing KG embedding methods for completing schematic knowledge still suffer from two limitations. Firstly, existing embedding methods designed to encode factual knowledge pay little attention to the completion of schematic knowledge (e.g., axioms). Secondly, several methods try to preserve logical properties of relations for completing schematic knowledge, but they cannot simultaneously preserve the transitivity (e.g., subclassOf) and symmetry (e.g., disjointWith) of axioms well. To solve these issues, we propose a cosine-based embedding method named CosE tailored for completing lightweight schematic knowledge in DL-Litecore. Precisely, the concepts in axioms will be encoded into two semantic spaces defined in CosE. One is called angle-based semantic space, which is employed to preserve the transitivity or symmetry of relations in axioms. The other one is defined as translation-based semantic space that is used to measure the confidence of each axiom. We design two types of score functions for these two semantic spaces, so as to sufficiently learn the vector representations of concepts. Moreover, we propose a novel negative sampling strategy based on the mutual exclusion between subclassOf and disjointWith. In this way, concepts can obtain better vector representations for schematic knowledge completion. We implement our method and verify it on four standard datasets generated by real ontologies. Experiments show that CosE can obtain better results than existing models and keep the logical properties of relations for transitivity and symmetry simultaneously

The preoperative predictors for subsequent degeneration in L5-S1 disc after long fusion arthrodesis terminating at L5 in patients with adult scoliosis: focus on spinopelvic parameters

Abstract Background The subsequent L5-S1 disc degeneration associated with long fusion arthrodesis terminating at L5 in patients with adult scoliosis has been a common concern. However, few studies paid attention to its preoperative predictors, especially in spinopelvic parameters. The purpose of the present study was to clarify the preoperative predictors of subsequent L5-S1 disc degeneration after long fusion arthrodesis terminating at L5 in patients with adult scoliosis on spinopelvic parameters. Methods In this retrospective study, we enrolled 67 patients with adult scoliosis, and the patients were divided into disc degeneration group (DD) and no disc degeneration group (NDD), based on the presence or absence of subsequent L5-S1 disc degeneration. The status of L5-S1 disc was evaluated by a modified version of radiographic classification. Characteristics and spinopelvic parameters of preoperative patients were collected as potential predictors for subsequent lumbosacral disc degeneration after long fusion arthrodesis terminating at L5 in patients with adult scoliosis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis and the receiver operating characteristic curve were used to identify the preoperative predictors, with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results Thirty-six patients (53.73%) with subsequent L5-S1 disc degeneration were divided into group DD (preoperative score 0.81 ± 0.57, last follow-up score 1.83 ± 0.60, P  4.43 cm (OR = 1.308, 95% CI = 1.036–1.649), and SFD > 5.65 cm (OR = 1.337, 95% CI = 1.041–1.718) showed satisfied accuracy for predicting subsequent L5-S1 disc degeneration. Conclusion The prevalence of the subsequent L5-S1 disc degeneration after long fusion arthrodesis terminating at L5 in patients with adult scoliosis was 57.3% (36 of 67 patients). PI  4.43 cm, and SFD > 5.65 cm were preoperative predictors for the subsequent L5-S1 disc degeneration. More attention should be paid to prevent the L5-S1 disc from degeneration when these preoperative predictors exist, especially with two or more

Asymmetrical degenerative marrow (Modic) changes in cervical spine: prevalence, correlative factors, and surgical outcomes

Abstract Background The current study aimed to discuss the prevalence and surgical outcomes of the asymmetrical Modic changes and identify its correlative factors by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Methods Two hundred seventy-eight patients with single-level Modic changes and nerve compression symptoms were reviewed retrospectively from January 2008 to January 2015. 1.5-T MRI was performed to determine the Modic changes. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the correlative factors of asymmetrical Modic changes. Surgeries were performed according to the surgical indications. The outcomes were recorded by Japanese Orthopaedic Association (JOA) score, Neck Disability Index (NDI) score, and recovery rate. Results Asymmetrical Modic changes were observed in 76 patients (27.34%) with 4 type 1, 69 type 2, and 3 type 3. C5/6 was the most frequently affected segment with 39 patients showing signal changes on MRI. Statistically significant difference was showed in conservative rehabilitation rate between two groups (p = 0.043). Multiple logistic regression analysis identified disc herniation and neurological symptoms as correlative factors of asymmetrical Modic changes, and the adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) were 2.079 (1.348–3.208) and 0.231 (0.143–0.373) respectively. No statistically significant difference was found in JOA scores and NDI scores between the two kinds of Modic changes. Conclusions C5/6 was the most commonly affected level by Modic changes. Disc herniation and nerve root compression symptom were more closely correlated with asymmetrical Modic changes than conventional Modic changes. Asymmetrical Modic changes indicated poor result in conservative treatment; however, the final operation rate was similar between the two kinds of Modic changes. The outcomes of surgical treatment were satisfactory both in patients with asymmetrical Modic changes and conventional Modic changes

Towards balanced defect prediction with better information propagation

Defect prediction, the task of predicting the presence of defects in source code artifacts, has broad application in software development. Defect prediction faces two major challenges, label scarcity, where only a small percentage of code artifacts are labeled, and data imbalance, where the majority of labeled artifacts are non-defective. Moreover, current defect prediction methods ignore the impact of information propagation among code artifacts and this negligence leads to performance degradation. In this paper, we propose DPCAG, a novel model to address the above three issues. We treat code artifacts as nodes in a graph, and learn to propagate influence among neighboring nodes iteratively in an EM framework. DPCAG dynamically adjusts the contributions of each node and selects high-confidence nodes for data augmentation. Experimental results on real-world benchmark datasets show that DPCAG improves performance compare to the state-of-the-art models. In particular, DPCAG achieves substantial performance superiority when measured by Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC), a metric that is widely acknowledged to be the most suitable for imbalanced data

Caveolin-1 expression level in cancer associated fibroblasts predicts outcome in gastric cancer.

AIMS: Altered expression of epithelial or stromal caveolin-1 (Cav-1) is observed in various types of human cancers. However, the clinical significance of Cav-1 expression in gastric cancer (GC) remains largely unknown. The present study aims to explore the clinicopathological significance and prognostic value of both tumor cells and cancer associated fibroblasts (CAFs) Cav-1 in GC. METHODS AND RESULTS: Quantum dots immunofluorescence histochemistry was performed to examine the expression of Cav-1 in 20 cases of gastritis without intestinal metaplasia (IM), 20 cases of gastritis with IM and 286 cases of GC. Positive rates of epithelial Cav-1 in gastritis without IM, gastritis with IM and GC showed a decreasing trend (P = 0.012). Low expression of Cav-1 in CAFs but not in tumor cells was an independent predictor of poor prognosis in GC patients (P = 0.034 and 0.005 respectively in disease free survival and overall survival). Cav-1 level in tumor cells and CAFs showed no significant correlation with classic clinicopathological features. CONCLUSIONS: Loss of epithelial Cav-1 may promote malignant progression and low CAFs Cav-1 level herald worse outcome of GC patient, suggesting CAFs Cav-1 may be a candidate therapeutic target and a useful prognostic marker of GC

COX proportional hazard models on disease free survival and overall survival of GC patients.

<p>AC, Adenocarcinoma.</p